Topic Index
Browse Credencing by section and page title. This is the fastest way to see the shape of the whole project before deciding where to read next.
Start Here
A guided entry into credences, evidence, confidence, Bayesian updating, and the difference between being mistaken and being epistemically inconsistent.
Core Ideas
The conceptual vocabulary behind the model: priors, likelihoods, posteriors, uncertainty, objective evidence, perceived evidence, assigned credence, and rationality types.
Credence Vocabulary
Two-Gap Model
Bayes Theorem
A dedicated walkthrough of Bayes theorem, its formula, its mental parts, and how scientists use it to revise confidence.
Interactive Lab
The live model, scenario presets, visual legend, comparison tools, and an interpretation guide for reading epistemic states.
Case Studies
Concrete examples of epistemic failure and repair in reasoning, institutions, media, medicine, politics, and ordinary judgment.
Everyday and Technical Cases
Skills
Practical exercises for thinking in credences, updating with new evidence, estimating priors, avoiding base-rate neglect, and asking better questions.
Core Practices
Discussion Groups
Session plans, discussion questions, scenarios, historical examples, and facilitator guidance for groups studying credencing together.
Program Sequence
Facilitation
Applications
Where credencing matters: science, medicine, journalism, law, public debate, AI alignment, personal decisions, and institutional diagnostics.
Public and Personal Systems
Library
Books, papers, essays, glossary entries, references, visual archive, teaching materials, downloads, and project notes.
Books
Research Spine
Short Essays
About
Project overview, methodological commitments, intended use, author notes, contact, and future directions.
Project Orientation