Credences
Credences are graded confidence assignments: the basic unit of the whole project.
A Credence Is a Degree of Confidence
A credence is a quantified or at least ordered degree of belief. It says not merely whether a claim is accepted, but how strongly it is held. The difference between 0.51 and 0.95 is not cosmetic; it changes how one should argue, act, defer, investigate, and update.
Credences can be expressed numerically, verbally, or comparatively. The important point is that confidence should have shape. "I lean yes," "I am nearly certain," and "I assign about 70 percent confidence" are all attempts to make the weight of belief visible.
Credences Connect Evidence to Action
Credences sit between evidence and action. Evidence informs confidence; confidence informs thresholds for action. A physician, voter, researcher, judge, or partner may face a practical decision, but the decision should not erase the underlying uncertainty.
Good credencing lets a person say: this is my confidence, this is why, this is what would move it, and this is the action threshold I am using under these stakes.
Credences in the Model
In the interactive model, Assigned Credence is the final confidence the agent adopts. It may track perceived evidence closely, or it may drift away under pressure from fear, desire, identity, or group loyalty.
That drift is the core diagnostic target of the project. A person who perceives 0.55 evidence but assigns 0.95 confidence is not merely confident; they are overstepping their own evidential position.