Risk Inflation
Risk inflation occurs when possibility is treated as probability and probability is treated as practical certainty.
The Pattern
Risk inflation begins with a real possibility. Something could happen. The mistake is allowing could to become likely, and likely to become effectively certain, without corresponding evidence.
This is common when outcomes are frightening, vivid, value-charged, or personally salient. The imagination supplies detail; credence follows the detail rather than the evidence.
Where the Gap Opens
Risk inflation can involve both gaps. EP may overread the evidence because vividness is mistaken for likelihood. CA may then exceed even EP because fear demands action as if the worst case were imminent.
Repair
Separate severity from probability. A severe outcome can deserve attention even when unlikely, but its severity does not make it probable. Then ask about base rates, comparison risks, marginal risk increase, and the cost of false alarms.
Possibility Is Not Yet Probability
Risk inflation often begins with a true sentence: something bad could happen. The error comes when possibility is treated as high probability, and high probability is then treated as practical certainty. The emotional vividness of the outcome silently replaces the evidence.
A better practice is to ask three questions separately: how bad would the outcome be, how likely is it, and what action threshold follows from the stakes? Keeping those questions separate prevents fear from doing probability work.