Build Your Own Scenario
Building your own scenario means assigning Objective Evidence (E0), Perceived Evidence (EP), Assigned Credence (CA), and Deep Rationality (SD) for a real or imagined belief state.
Choose the Claim
Start with a specific claim. Avoid vague topics like "politics" or "medicine." Use a concrete proposition: this treatment is likely to work, this source is reliable, this policy will reduce harm, this person is trustworthy.
Set the Four Values
Estimate E0 as the evidential target, EP as what the agent perceives, CA as what the agent actually believes, and SD as the agent inferential skill in this domain. Do not worry about exact precision at first. The relationships matter more than the decimal.
- |Ask what the evidence really supports.
- |Ask what the agent takes it to support.
- |Ask how strongly the agent actually believes.
- |Ask how reliable the agent tools are in this domain.
Read the Gaps
If Objective Evidence (E0) and Perceived Evidence (EP) diverge, investigate information quality and reasoning skill. If Perceived Evidence (EP) and Assigned Credence (CA) diverge, investigate motivation, fear, identity, incentives, or social pressure. If both diverge, the scenario likely combines ignorance with motivated belief.