# Credencing Classroom Exercises

## Exercise 1: Confidence Bands

Give students five claims. Have them assign confidence bands: low, uncertain, tentative, substantial, strong, or near certain. Ask them to justify each band with evidence.

## Exercise 2: Base Rates Before Stories

Present a vivid anecdote. Before discussion, require students to identify the relevant reference class and estimate the base rate.

## Exercise 3: Two-Gap Diagnosis

Give a scenario involving a mistaken belief. Students must decide whether the main failure is E0 to EP, EP to CA, or both.

## Exercise 4: Rival Reconstruction

Ask students to reconstruct the strongest version of a view they reject, then assign a credence from that rival perspective.

## Exercise 5: Update Conditions

For a controversial claim, each student writes what evidence would raise, lower, or leave unchanged their current confidence.